Perth, Western Australia Nov 21, 2018 (Issuewire.com) - Duncan Calder, past National President of the Australia China Business Council, is fearful that the fallout for Australia from the recent APEC gathering will be significant and lasting.
Has President Donald Trump's genius been on display again at APEC? Have we just witnessed a re-run of his successful NATO strategy? He has fractured the APEC regional structure that Keating promoted to bring both sides of the Pacific together and he has left it less relevant and less of a problem for him. This ugly APEC confrontation will mean more than a sour and bitter aftertaste for Australia - and no-one in our media has even noticed.
When I came to Australia 30 years ago, I was most impressed by the celebrated Aussie principles of "fair go" and "fair dinkum". This was even reflected in Australian journalism which, back then, largely presented balanced and independent analysis.
Sadly those days are long gone. Tabloid journalism combined with falling revenues has seemed an alarming plummet in the quality of reporting. That was very much in evidence this week in the reporting of the APEC summit.
Thank goodness for the Straits Times, which publishes, in English, a balanced perspective; not one crafted by puppets of US' worldview or China's worldview. After all, neither side is angels – both have self-interest at heart. Perhaps a read of this article and others by ST will highlight for you just how far our standards have fallen in Australia. Even the Financial Review plumbed the depths yesterday with an inflammatory and inaccurate headline "China revolt derails APEC".
Total nonsense. Let's examine some facts (just for a change).
- The US sought to direct APEC debate towards aggressive criticism of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and away from Asia Pacific issues. Why? APEC has no charter over the WTO. The WTO is the forum that is appropriate for such debate. I remember when the US used to defend the WTO as the gold standard - but now China has thrived within WTO, the story changes. The Australian media ignore this fact. At APEC, China simply stood up for the WTO as an invaluable multilateral trade system. Did Australia?
- APEC is a consensus-based forum - for the US to seek to manipulate the closing communique for its own political ends is unheard of in all previous APEC meetings. No western media notes that. Trump has long stood against regional consensus and non-US controlled regional structures (his withdrawal from the TPP is a testimony to his). Again we see the genius of Trump's aggression and strategy in that he leaves APEC fractured and with reduced influence and relevance going forward - which aligns nicely with his goals. I look forward to Paul Keating's observations as the architect of APEC as a vehicle to bring both sides of the Pacific together. APEC losing relevance is not in Australia's interest - but why don't our local media see that? We are Trump's puppet and we don't even see it!
- US and Australia used the forum for inflammatory geopolitical military announcements, rather than trade and positive agenda items - with the announcement of Manus as an expanded military facility clearly targeted at China.
- In fact, China has no history of deploying its troops around the globe, not even when it was the global super power in the 14th and 15th centuries. Yes, it has a small overseas presence - but minor and in places like Djibouti. On the other hand, the US has 800 overseas military bases in over 70 countries. Who does that suggest is using military power for economic hegemony? Where is the common sense or "smell test" filter on the ridiculous fear-mongering coming out of the Garnaut/ASIO inspired Canberra hawks as the more balanced view of DFAT is, sadly, increasingly being sidelined and ignored?
- China does not, in fact, have a history of aggressive overseas military actions (except as a victim). Can we say the same about the US and Australia after the Iraq WMD debacle?
The Australian media seems to be falling nicely in behind a dark, hard-line anti-Belt & Road Initiative stance. Fear mongering is widespread suggesting that China is attempting to take over the world through helping countries to grow through providing critical economic infrastructure, especially, port, rail and roads.
NOT ONCE have I seen the Australian media comment on the jobs, trade and massive revenue inflows and massive benefits that are being experienced within countries who are beneficiaries of BRI. NOT ONCE have I seen any recognition of the political reality that China's overriding, primary motivation with BRI is to continue to provide jobs for the millions in its workforce who have built China's road, rail and port infrastructure and need new markets to be opened up to stay employed. China's primary goal is always internal stability.
This is all incredibly sad to watch as the sad state of Sino-Australian relationships over the last 3 years worsens with falling levels of investment into Australia being one consequence. Perhaps Canberra needs a reminder from those of us in business dealing with and relying on our friendships with China and Chinese people that our relations with our (far and away) most important trading partner need to be treated with respect. Much more respect. Like we rightly show the US.
Let us not forget that, without China's custom our resources sector, our tourism sector and our education sector will collapse. We have provoked China repeatedly, starting with Julie Bishop's claim in Singapore that China has no role to play in the region, through to selective anti-China use by the Treasurer of FIRB approvals and on to criticisms of Belt & Road and the announcement of new military alliances.
Let's hope that the price we will inevitably pay as a country for the lack of respect shown to China does not bring catastrophic economic consequences for us. Western Australia and Victoria are particularly exposed - perhaps why the Victorian Government has taken a more balanced approached to BRI with its recent vague but important MOU?
We Australian businessmen all need to play our part in reversing the decline from close, trading partnership to aggressive, deep mistrust and blatant antagonism. The price of failure doesn't bear thinking about. The sad trend needs reversing.
In the meantime, Australian businesses need to collaborate proactively to seek to capitalise on the $10 trillion being spent on BRI projects around the world, since we don't look like receiving any BRI infrastructure investment into Australia any time soon in this current environment.
Let’s pack our sunscreen and head to Africa for some friendly business!
Duncan Calder, past National President of the Australia China Business Council, sees that the role of investment advisers, like Contour Capital, is to encourage a focus on win-win relationships that yield cultural, social and economic benefits for all parties.
Media Contact
Contour Capital d.calder@contourcapital.com.au 61 439 299 817 http://www.contourcapital.com.au
